www.AlaskaAlliance.com 31 Total output set to be about 464K barrels per day The state of Alaska is forecasting continued North Slope oil production declines over the next three years until increases begin when the construction of new fields is completed. Total production, including crude oil, natural gas liquids and condensate, is expected to decline to an average of 463,800 barrels per day next year (for state Fiscal Year 2025), according to the forecast prepared by the state Department of Revenue and released Dec. 14. This compares with a 470,300 barrels per day average this year, in state fiscal year 2024, and a 479,400 barrels per day average in FY 2023, the prior fiscal year which ended last July. Production is expected to begin increasing again in the state’s FY2026 when the new Pikka field on the North Slope being developed by Australia-based Santos Ltd. begins producing, said Lorraine Henry, spokesperson for the state’s Department of Natural Resources, or DNR, the agency that does the state’s petroleum forecasting. Production will get another boost in 2029 when ConocoPhillips will start up Willow, another new North Slope field. North Slope production is forecast to average 633,800 barrels per day in state FY 2033. Declines at the larger legacy fields on the slope, like Prudhoe Bay, Kuparuk River and Alpine are expected to continue as output climbs at new fields. Henry said the Pikka and Willow estimates are conservative and “risked” by state forecasters to accommodate unexpected problems, so actual production may be higher. “Generally, the near-term production declines reflect declines at existing fields, then the longer-term production increases reflect new production from new fields and new drilling at existing fields, but that new production is included on a risked basis. Production on the legacy fields is declining as expected,” Henry said in an email. “This does not represent a disagreement with the operators’ proposed plans or timelines, but to CONTINUED on PAGE 33 Hilcorp Energy remains a lynchpin in North Slope production. Photos Courtesy Judy Patrick Field operating costs on the North Slope rose from $15.08 per barrel last year to $16.17 per barrel this year, for FY 2024, and are projected by the producers to reach $16.99 per barrel next year, in FY 2025.
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